The key to stabilizing the economy is to stabilize expectations
[Guangming Forum] Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complex situation of the century -old changes and the century epidemic, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core unite and lead the people of all ethnic groups in the country to coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development."Implement a good start.
In the first quarter, my country’s GDP increased by%year -on -year, an increase of%from the previous quarter in the fourth quarter of 2021. The national economy continued to restore the development trend, and the economic operation was generally stable.
At the same time, we must also see that the global epidemic situation is still severe and the Russian -Ukraine conflict has led to a significant increase in risk challenges. The complexity, severe, and uncertainty of my country’s economic development environment have risen, and stable growth, employment, and stable prices are facing new challenges. Especially since March, the marginal changes presented by various economic data, the expectations of economic entities have become weakened, and the downward pressure on the economy cannot be ignored.
In view of this, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 29 emphasized that "the epidemic should be defended, the economy must be stabilized, and the development must be safe." Economy, strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable range. "
To achieve the expected goals, it is important to stabilize the market expectations.
Expect management is an important way to guide the public’s expectations by strengthening information communication with the public to improve the effect of macro policy regulation. The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 8th to 10th, 2021 pointed out that "we must see that my country’s economic development is facing demand shrinkage, supply impact, and expected weakness."
This means that resolving the current economic downward pressure must not only promote expansion of demand, but also ensure stability of supply, but also to strengthen expected guidance.
The "triple pressure" pointed out the problems existing in China’s economic operation from different dimensions, but there are also closely related logic mechanisms between the three. If the shock of demand shrinkage and supply is regarded as the adverse effects of the economy at the macro level, then weakening is expected to reflect the decline in the potential economic growth trend caused by a series of structural issues from a micro level, and therefore The stability, consistency, and effectiveness of the relevant policies formulated by the formulation of relevant policies are lack of confidence and concerns about subjective cognition caused by multiple factors such as.
The expectations of micro -economic entities will inevitably extend from the aspects of supply and demand to prevent the macroeconomic operation and unblocking macroeconomic operations, and will further increase downward pressure on the economic downlink effect through the "self -enhancement" cycle effect.
Therefore, in this triple pressure, the expected problem seems invisible, but it will have a tangible impact on the overall economic operation, which is the key to stabilizing the economy. Only by stabilizing the expectations of micro -economic entities, investment and consumption demand can expand. At the same time, by improving the quality and efficiency of the supply system, the changes in demand structures can be better connected to form a higher level of dynamic balance of demand -to -supply supply and supply creation demand, and then stabilize the economy to stabilize the economy increase. In particular, the current domestic and foreign environments are complex and changeable, and the situation that exceeds the expected situation has exacerbated the uncertainty of economic development. It is necessary to stabilize the expectations with more intensive and advanced policy measures. First, at the macro level, we must continue to implement positive fiscal policies and stable monetary policies. At the same time, we should focus on organic combination of cross -cycle and reverse cyclical regulation. The policy curve must lead the market curve and carefully introduce a shrinkage policy.
On the one hand, positive fiscal policies must improve efficiency and pay more attention to accurate and sustainable.
The first is to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up expenditure progress.
The second is to coordinate with policies such as currency, employment, and industry. The third is to improve the accuracy of key expenditures, focus on the high -quality development of manufacturing, ensure the construction of key projects, effectively solve the problems of small and medium -sized enterprises, focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation, implement new more intensity taxes and fees, and further optimize the fiscal expenditure structure. , Strengthen the financial guarantee for basic people’s livelihood.
The fourth is to enhance the sustainability of fiscal policies. When coordinating the arrangement of fiscal expenditures, it is necessary to determine the appropriate deficit rate, scientifically arrange debt scale, increase the payment of local transfer payment, and alleviate local fiscal pressure. On the other hand, a stable monetary policy must make good use of various monetary policy tools to increase support for the real economy and meet the reasonable financing needs of market entities. The first is to maintain a moderate growth of credit and social financing in terms of total amount, and maintain basically matching the growth rate of total currency indicators with the growth rate of GDP.
The second is to give full play to the unique advantages of structural monetary policy tools in promoting the development of the real economy, and guide financial institutions to flow to key areas and weak links in economic development such as small and micro enterprises and green development.
The third is to meet the rational financing needs of market entities, reduce the cost of corporate financing through measures such as lowering rations and lowered loan interest rates, increase the demand for effective credit, and stabilize and expand total demand. Second, at the level of the middle view, pay attention to the continuous and healthy development of key industries, effectively control the key risks, and keep the bottom line of no systemic risk.
The first is to stabilize the real estate market. Adhere to the positioning of the house for living, not for speculation, support all localities to improve the real estate policy from the local area, support rigid and improved housing needs, optimize the supervision of pre -sale funds for commercial housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
The second is to improve the capital market system and mechanism.
Promote the reform of stock issuance registration system steadily, actively introduce long -term investors, and maintain smooth operation of the capital market. The third is to promote the healthy development of the platform’s economy. Through standardized, transparent, and expected supervision, it has stabilized and completed the rectification work of large platform companies as soon as possible. The red lights and green lights must be set up to promote the stable and healthy development of the platform’s economy and improve international competitiveness. Introduce specific measures to support the healthy development of the platform.
Third, from the micro level, the confidence of the market subject must be boosted. First, adhere to the principle of neutrality in competition, further promote the implementation of fair competition policies with market -oriented and rule of law, strengthen antitrust and anti -unfair competition, use fair supervision to ensure fair competition, reduce the direct allocation of market resources for administrative forces, and promote the direct allocation of market resources, promote the promotion Form a fair and transparent market competitive environment. Second, comprehensively use various methods such as law, administrative, economic, technical, and social governance to build a intellectual property protection system, create a good environment for the development of various ownership enterprises, and continue to stimulate the vitality and potential of the market entity.
The third is to build a new type of political and business relationship, create a good atmosphere of respecting entrepreneurs in the whole society, promote the spirit of entrepreneurs, establish a normalized entrepreneurial communication mechanism, and form institutional arrangements to timely solve problems for enterprises, enhance their confidence in development confidence Essence In general, my country’s economy still maintains a good recovery trend and has a solid foundation for stabilizing expectations. Promoting economic stable growth is to stabilize expectations.
Only by stabilizing expectations can we enhance the confidence of market entities for economic development, thereby promoting the stable, healthy and sustainable development of my country’s economy. Author: Guo Wei (Central Party School [National Academy of Administration] Xi Jinping’s new era of socialist ideology research center and professor of the Ministry of Economics).